EU Enlargement in 2025: Candidate Countries and Negotiation Progress

As the European Union stands on the cusp of a new enlargement phase in 2025, the continent faces a dynamic and potentially transformative period. The expansion of the EU has always carried profound political, economic, and social implications—not only for candidate countries but also for the Union as a whole. Nearly two decades after the historic 2004 “big bang” enlargement, the 2025 enlargement round is shaping up to be a test of EU’s unity, adaptability, and geopolitical strategy. This post will explore the status of current candidate countries, the intricacies of accession negotiations, and the broader political context driving—and complicating—EU enlargement in the contemporary era.

The Road to Membership: EU Enlargement Policy in 2025

The European Union’s enlargement policy aims to promote stability, prosperity, and democratic governance in its neighborhood by integrating prospective member states. Enlargement is guided by the “Copenhagen criteria”—a series of political, economic, and acquis (EU law) benchmarks candidates must fulfill before joining. Over the last decade, enlargement momentum has fluctuated, shaped by internal EU debates, “enlargement fatigue,” and shifting geopolitical realities, particularly in the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe.

Candidate Countries in 2025: Who’s Next?

As the EU prepares for its next round of expansion, the following countries are recognized as official candidates:

• Albania
• Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Georgia
• Moldova
• Montenegro
• North Macedonia
• Serbia
• Ukraine

Each candidate presents a unique story of reform, challenge, and opportunity. Let’s delve into the current state of play for each.

Western Balkans: The Long March to Europe

The Western Balkans remain the heart of the EU’s enlargement ambitions. While integration has been slow and sometimes fractious, 2025 may mark a decisive shift for several Balkan hopefuls.

Montenegro

Montenegro was the first Western Balkan country to open accession negotiations in 2012 and has reached a significant milestone: all 33 negotiation chapters have been opened, with several provisionally closed. Progress on the rule of law, judicial independence, and anti-corruption measures is still needed, but Brussels regards Montenegro as the region’s frontrunner. If reforms accelerate in 2024, Montenegro could become the next EU member in 2025—or shortly thereafter.

Serbia

Serbia’s path is complex, interwoven with challenging issues such as the normalization of relations with Kosovo and concerns about alignment with EU foreign policy, especially regarding Russia. Out of 35 negotiating chapters, Serbia has opened 22 and provisionally closed 2. While economic reforms and regional cooperation have progressed, the Kosovo dialogue and media freedom concerns remain sticking points. Without tangible progress in these areas, Serbia’s accession in 2025 is possible but far from guaranteed.

North Macedonia and Albania

After years of delays, both North Macedonia and Albania officially opened accession negotiations in July 2022. North Macedonia’s name dispute resolution with Greece was a diplomatic breakthrough, but Bulgaria’s subsequent veto linked to historical and language disputes has led to additional hurdles. Albania’s reform track record, particularly on the judiciary and anti-corruption, is strong, though implementation remains key. If both countries can maintain reform momentum and overcome bilateral obstacles, their path could become clearer in 2025.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina was granted candidate status in December 2022, yet faces the toughest reform agenda among Western Balkan aspirants. Ethnic divisions, a fragmented constitution, and sluggish progress on the rule of law hinder its prospects. Meeting the EU’s 14 key priorities for accession negotiations remains a steep challenge, making 2025 entry highly unlikely. However, intensified EU engagement could help Bosnia inch closer to negotiations kickoff.

Eastern Enlargement: The New Geopolitical Frontier

Russia’s war on Ukraine has profoundly reshaped the EU’s neighborhood policy, propelling Eastern European countries to the top of the enlargement agenda.

Ukraine

Granted candidate status in June 2022, Ukraine’s accession process is unprecedentedly fast-tracked due to the geopolitical urgency posed by Russia’s invasion. Reforms on judicial independence, anti-corruption, and minority rights are ongoing, but the current conflict complicates comprehensive reform and integration. Despite these huge challenges, there is strong political will in Brussels and Kyiv to accelerate the process, with some EU leaders supporting Ukraine’s membership as early as 2025. Realistically, Ukraine’s full accession probably depends on both substantial reforms and a sustainable resolution to the war.

Moldova

Moldova, like Ukraine, received candidate status in June 2022. The government is pushing ahead with reforms in the judiciary and anti-corruption, but the unresolved conflict in Transnistria and Russian influence remain formidable obstacles. Moldova hopes to open formal negotiations in 2024, with a view to significant progress in 2025.

Georgia

Georgia was granted candidate status in December 2023, after initially being left behind Ukraine and Moldova. Political polarization, judicial reform, and concerns over democratic backsliding have complicated Georgia’s path. The government must also balance pro-European aspirations against domestic divisions and external pressure from Russia. 2025 could be pivotal for Georgia’s integration trajectory, contingent on fulfilling key EU recommendations.

Negotiation Progress: Benchmarks, Roadblocks, and Reform

The EU accession process is structured around screening, negotiating, and closing 35 negotiation chapters, from fundamental rights to trade rules, environmental standards, and judiciary independence. Progress is assessed annually through European Commission reports, with positive reforms met with stepped-up negotiations, and setbacks yielding freezes or reversals.

Key Issues in the 2025 Enlargement Cycle

• Rule of Law and Judiciary Reform: These remain top priorities, with all candidates required to demonstrate the independence of courts, effective anti-corruption measures, and active civil societies.
• Democratic Governance: Media freedom, electoral integrity, and political pluralism are under the microscope, especially in light of recent backsliding in some candidate states.
• Alignment with EU Foreign Policy: Ongoing Russian aggression has sharpened the requirement for alignment with the EU’s common foreign and security policy.
• Functioning Market Economy: Economic convergence and harmonization with EU standards continue to be crucial benchmarks.
• Resolution of Bilateral Disputes: Historical, linguistic, and border disputes—especially in the Balkans—fuel uncertainty and can stall progress.

Internal EU Perspectives on Enlargement

Enlargement fatigue has gradually eased, but some existing member states remain cautious, prioritizing reform of EU institutions before further expansion. The internal capacity to absorb new members, concerns over migration and funding, and fears of importing instability are recurrent themes in both political and public debates.

At the same time, the strategic imperative of anchoring the Western Balkans and Eastern Europe to the EU—amidst intensifying competition with Russia and China—has revived enlargement as a crucial pillar of EU foreign policy. This is particularly evident in support for Ukraine and steps to fast-track reforms in candidate countries.

Conclusion: 2025 and the Future of European Integration

The EU enlargement process in 2025 stands at a crossroads. The trajectory of candidate countries is shaped by a complex interplay of domestic reforms, bilateral relations, and shifting geopolitical trends. While clear frontrunners like Montenegro and potentially Albania may achieve substantial progress—or even accession—in this cycle, other candidates face long roads ahead.

One thing is clear: successful enlargement will require commitment from both sides. Candidates must deliver on tough reforms, while the EU itself must resolve internal divisions and demonstrate that it remains open, credible, and transformative. With Russia’s war on Ukraine adding urgency and gravity, the Union’s approach in 2025 will send powerful signals about the future of European unity, stability, and the values the EU embodies.

For political observers, policymakers, and citizens alike, the ongoing enlargement process is more than an institutional procedure—it is a test of Europe’s vision, resolve, and capacity to shape its destiny in a turbulent world.

Stay tuned to Political Insights Blog for comprehensive coverage of EU enlargement, candidate country analysis, and Europe’s evolving political landscape.